Playing with numbers

I recently read this article and this article, which discuss new data on the link between abortion and breast cancer. According to the latter, Women who have had abortions are 6.26 times as likely to have breast cancer than women who did not. The first study is considered statistically "better" and shows a 44% increase in breast cancer rate for women who have had abortions.

Now, abortion supporters have long disregarded "right wing" studies that showed links between abortion and breast cancer. But with lots of new data coming from China (which is hardly a pro-life source) it is becoming harder and harder to deny that there is a link.

This got me to thinking. Without abortion, what would the base rate for beast cancer be? And for those women who've had abortions, what is the expected breast cancer rate? Math to the rescue!

One third of American women will have an abortion at some point in their lives. The breast cancer rate in the US is one in eight. Using these numbers we can arrange an equation to figure out what the chance of breast cancer has to be in the two groups to get the observed combined average:

1/3 * AbortionbreastCancerRate + 2/3 * BaseBreastCancerRate = 1/8

or

(AbortionbreastCancerRate + 2*BaseBreastCancerRate) / 3 = 1/8

Using the low figures (44%), we can substitute as following:

AbortionBreastCancerRate = 1.44 * BaseBreastCancerRate

(1.44 * BaseBreastCancerRate + 2 * BaseBreastCancerRate) / 3 = 1/8

or

3.44 * BaseBreastCancerRate / 3 = 1/8

so

BaseBreastCancerRate = 1/9

AbortionBreastCancerRate = 1/6

Using the higher figures:

AbortionBreastCancerRate = 6.26 * BaseBreastCancerRate

(6.26 * BaseBreastCancerRate + 2 * BaseBreastCancerRate) / 3 = 1/8

or

8.26 * BaseBreastCancerRate / 3 = 1/8

so

BaseBreastCancerRate = 1/22

AbortionBreastCancerRate = 2/7

Wow! So if I believe the higher figures,  it's possible that breast cancer is really a much lower probability disease, but abortion is pretty much single-handedly responsible for it being a scourge. Of course, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, but it's something to consider, when abortion is being pushed as if it were health care. Would abortion be such a "go to" option if women knew that it was a two in seven chance of developing breast cancer because of it?

Posted in: abortion,health care,Math